A Longitudinal Study of Polish Attitudes to Emigration: A Latent Markov Model Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15678/AOC.2017.1603Keywords:
latent Markov model, panel data, model-based clustering, emigrationAbstract
Latent class analysis can be viewed as a special case of model-based clustering for multivariate discrete data. When longitudinal data are to be analysed, the research questions concern some form of change over time. The latent Markov model is a variation of the latent class model that is applied to estimate not only the prevalence of latent class membership, but the incidence of transitions over time in latent class membership.In 2004, Poland joined the European Union, prompting a number of Poles to leave the country. To examine this event, a model-based clustering approach for grouping and detecting inhomogeneities of public attitudes to emigration from Poland was used. It focuses especially on latent Markov models with covariates, which additionally made it possible to investigate the dynamic pattern of Poles’ attitudes to emigration for different demographic features. depmixS4, Rsolnp and LMest packages of R were used.
References
Agresti, A. (2002) Categorical Data Analysis. New York: Wiley.
Akaike, H. (1974) “A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification”. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19 (6): 716–23, https://doi.org/10.1109/tac.1974.1100705.
Bartolucci, F., Farcomeni, A. and Pennoni, F. (2013) “Including Individual Covariates and Relaxing Basic Model Assumptions” in Latent Markov Models for Longitudinal Data. Boca Raton: Chapman and Hall/CRC Press.
Bartolucci, F., Montanari, G. and Pandolfi, S. (2015) “Three-step Estimation of Latent Markov Models with Covariates”. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis 83: 287–301, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2014.10.017.
Baum, L., Petrie, T., Soules, G. and Weiss, N. (1970) “A Maximization Technique Occurring in the Statistical Analysis of Probabilistic Functions of Markov Chains”. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 41 (1): 164–71, https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697196.
Budnik, K. B. (2007) Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland. National Bank of Poland Working Paper 44. Warsaw: National Bank of Poland.
Collins, L. and Lanza, S. T. (2010) Latent Class and Latent Transition Analysis: With Applications in the Social, Behavioral and Health Sciences. Hoboken: Wiley.
Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M. and Rubin D. B. (1977) “Maximum Likelihood for Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm (with Discussion)”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 39 (1): 1–38.
Diagnoza społeczna 2013. Warunki i jakość życia Polaków (2014) eds J. Czapiński, T. Panek. Warszawa: Rada Monitoringu Społecznego, http://www.diagnoza.com. Accessed: 23 March 2014.
Genge, E. (2014) “Zastosowanie ukrytych modeli Markowa w analizie oszczędności wśród Polaków”. Studia Ekonomiczne 189: 58–66.
Paas, L. J., Vermunt, J. K. and Bijmolt, T. H. A. (2007) “Discrete Time, Discrete State Latent Markov Modelling for Assessing and Predicting Household Acquisitions of Financial Products”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society) 170 (4): 955–74, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2007.00478.x.
Schwarz, G. (1978) “Estimating the Dimension of a Model”. The Annals of Statistics 6 (2): 461–64, https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176344136.
van de Pol, F. and Langeheine, R. (1990) “Mixed Markov Latent Class Models”. Sociological Methodology 20: 213–47, https://doi.org/10.2307/271087.
Vermunt, J. K. (1997) Log-linear Models for Event Histories. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications.
Vermunt, J. K., Langeheine, R. and Böckenholt, U. (1999) “Discrete-time Discrete-state Latent Markov Models with Time-constant and Time-varying Covariates”. Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 24 (2): 179–207, https://doi.org/10.2307/1165200.
Visser, I. and Speekenbrink, M. (2010) “DepmixS4: An R Package for Hidden Markov Models”. Journal of Statistical Software 36 (7): 1–21, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v036.i07.
Wiggins, L. (1973) Panel Analysis: Latent Probability Models for Attitude and Behavior Processes. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Witek, E. (2010) “Analysis of Massive Emigration from Poland: The Model-based Clustering Approach” in A. Fink, B. Lausen, W. Seidel, A. Ultsch (eds) Advances in Data Analysis, Data Handling and Business Intelligence. Proceedings of the 32nd Annual Conference of the Gesellschaft für Klassifikation. Berlin: Springer, pp. 615–24.
White, A. (2011) Polish Families and Migration since EU Accession. Bristol: The Policy Press.