Population Ageing and Poland’s International Investment Position

Renata Knap

Abstract


The aim of this paper is to try to evaluate the impact of population ageing on Poland’s international investment position in the next five decades. To that end, a literature review was carried out along with a comparative analysis of measures of population ageing in Poland and other countries using logical deduction. The results of the study show that the expected intensive progress of population ageing in the 2020–2065 period will contribute to an increased demand for foreign capital, an increasingly negative international net investment position as well as unfavourable changes in the structure of foreign liabilities. The influx of foreign capital caused by population ageing might not translate into the expected maintenance of / increase in the rate of economic growth, while the substantial negative net international investment position may become a barrier to development in subsequent periods.


Keywords


population ageing, international capital flows, international investment position, Poland

Full Text:

PDF

References


Ando, A. and Modigliani, F. (1963) “The ‘Life-Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests”. American Economic Review 53(1), Part 1: 55–84.

Attanasio, O. and Violante, G. (2000) “The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions”. IADB Working Paper 412.

Bańbuła, P. (2006) “Oszczędności i wybór międzyokresowy – podejście behawioralne”. Materiały i Studia 208. Warszawa: NBP.

Bárány, Z., Coeurdacier, N. and Guibaud, S. (2016) “Fertility, Longevity, and Capital Flows”. HIS Economics Series Working Paper 321. Vienna: Institute for Advanced Studies.

Börsch-Supan, A. (1992) “Saving and Consumption Patterns of the Elderly: The German Case”. Journal of Population Economics 5(4): 289–303, https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00163062.

Börsch-Supan, A. (2004) “Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions”. Working Papers 084, University of Michigan.

Börsch-Supan, A., Ludwig, A. and Winter, J. (2001) “Aging and International Capital Flows”. NBER Working Paper 8553. Cambridge: NBER, https://doi.org/10.3386/w8553.

Brooks, R. (2003) “Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe”. IMF Staff Papers 50(2).

Bryant, R.C. (2006) “Asymmetric Demographic Transitions and North-South Capital Flows”. Brookings Discussion Papers in International Economics 170.

Chawla, M. (2007) From Red to Gray: The Third Transition of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Washington: The World Bank.

Chinn, M. D. and Prasad, E. S. (2003) “Medium-term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration”. Journal of International Economics 59(1): 47–76.

Dekle, R. (2004) “Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Roles of Foreign Capital Inflows and Immigration”. NBER Working Paper 10781. Cambridge: NBER, https://doi.org/10.3386/w10781.

Domeij, D. and Floden, M. (2006) “Population Aging and International Capital Flows”. International Economic Review 47(3): 1013–1032.

Gelinas, V. (2018) Currency Composition of Canada’s International Investment Position, www.statcan.gc.ca (accessed: 2 July 2018).

Graff, M., Tang, K. K. and Zhang, J. (2012) “Does Demographic Change Affect the Current Account? A Reconsideration”. Global Economy Journal 12(4): 1–26, https://doi.org/10.1515/1524-5861.1885.

Gudmundsson, G. S. and Zoega, G. (2014) “Age Structure and the Current Account”. Economic Letters 123(2): 183–186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.02.001.

GUS (2018) Baza demograficzna, http://demografia.stat.gov.pl/bazademografia/ (accessed: 25 August 2018).

Hassan, A. F. M., Salim, R. and Bloch, H. (2011) “Population Age Structure, Saving, Capital Flows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Survey of the Literature”. Journal of Economic Surveys 25(4): 708–736, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00665.x.

Hassan, K., Salim, R. and Bloch, H. (2015) “Demographic Transition and the Real Exchange Rate in Australia: An Empirical Investigation”. New Zealand Economic Papers 49(1), https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2013.851016.

Higgins, M. (1998) “Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows”. International Economic Review 39(2): 343–369, https://doi.org/10.2307/2527297.

IMF (2009) Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. Sixth Edition (BPM6). Washington: IMF.

Kalisz, P. and Chrapek, C. (2016) Raport specjalny: Ostatnie spowolnienie to dopiero początek, www.citibank.pl/poland/homepage/polish/files2/komentarz20160909.pdf (accessed: 8 July 2018).

Lane, P. R. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. (2001) “Long-term Capital Movements”. NBER Working Paper 8366. Cambridge: NBER, https://doi.org/10.3386/w8366.

Lührmann, M. (2003) “Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows”. MEA Discussion Paper Series 03038.

Lv, J. X. (2018) “Population Age Structure, Urbanization and Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Study Based on G20’s Panel Data”. Modern Economy 9(02): 302–317, https://doi.org/10.4236/me.2018.92020.

Mérette, M. and Georges, P. (2009) “Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis”. Working Papers 0903E. University of Ottawa.

Modigliani, F. and Brumberg, R. (1954) “Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data” in K. K. Kurihara (ed.) Post-Keynesian Economics. New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press.

NBP (2018) Statystyka bilansu płatniczego, http://www.nbp.pl/home.aspx?f=/statystyka/bilans_ platniczy.html (accessed: 25 September 2018).

Okólski, M. and Fihel, A. (2012) Demografia. Współczesne zjawiska i teorie. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar.

United Nations (2004) World Population to 2300. New York: United Nation.

United Nations (2005) World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision, http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf (accessed: 26 August 2018).

United Nations (2018) World Population Prospects 2017, https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/ Standard/Population/ (accessed: 26 August 2018).

World Bank (2014) Poland: Saving for Growth and Prosperous Aging. Washington: The World Bank.

World Bank (2016) Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change. Washington: The World Bank.

World Bank (2018) DataBank, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Source=world development-indicators (accessed: 26 September 2018).




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15678/AOC.2019.2107