Trading Recommendations – A Long-term Analysis and the Evolution of Law

Piotr Dąbrowski, Katarzyna Jarno

Abstract


The aim of this paper is to assess the profitability of strategies based on the recommendations made by brokerage houses and to identify the so-called reco-leaders from among financial institutions publishing investment advice. The authors focus on the quality of brokerage recommendations for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. They investigate whether there has been an improvement in the quality of recommendations over recent years and whether regulations have been evolving to provide investors with a reliable source of recommendations. The analysis covers all stock recommendations for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange released between January 2006 and the end of October 2017. The equity curve presents the results of the calculations and covers both transaction costs and capital gains tax. The analysis of the recommendations shows that their overall quality is extremely low and the problem is affected further by taxation. Despite poor recommendations, the research identifies leaders amongst the recommenders. Unfortunately, the overall weak performance of the recommendations issued does not entail any changes to regulations.


Keywords


stock market recommendation, individual investor, capital gains tax, investment, Warsaw Stock Exchange

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.15678/AOC.2019.2006