Macroeconomic Stability in Poland against the Backdrop of Union Tendencies in Light of the Concept of MSP

Aleksandra Jurkowska, Michał Boda

Abstract


This article aims to analyse the trends in the development of factors that determine the level of macroeconomic stability and to assess this level in Poland against the backdrop of different groups of European Union Member States (EU28 countries, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southern Europe) over the period 2006–2015 by using the Macroeconomic Stability Pentagon (MSP) method. The subjects of analysis in the presented method are the rate of economic growth (GDP), the unemployment rate (U), the rate of inflation (CPI), the public finance balance (G), and the country’s current account balance (CA). These values form the apexes of a pentagon scaled in such a way that the more desirable the indicator value, the further its corresponding apex is situated from the centre of the system. The article proposes establishing a joint area of the MSP based on a modified classic scale and a scale with regression (these approaches do / do not take into account, respectively, the negative influence of deflation on the general level of macroeconomic stability). The conducted analyses show that in recent years the EU28 countries have returned to the level of macroeconomic equilibrium prior to the crisis of 2008–2009. In Poland the MSP indicator has been growing since 2013 and has significantly exceeded the levels observed in Southern European countries. However, until 2015 its level was still lower than the average for the EU28 and the average set for the Central and East European countries. This was mainly due to the high level of unemployment, which despite a downward trend still remained above the EU average.


Keywords


economic policy, macroeconomic indicators, macroeconomic stability, Macroeconomic Stability Pentagon (MSP), MSP indicator

Full Text:

PDF

References


Albiński, P. (2014) “Kryzysy i polityka stabilizacyjna w Unii Europejskiej” [Crises and stabilisation policy in the European Union] in P. Albiński (ed.) Kryzys a polityka stabilizacyjna w Unii Europejskiej [The crisis versus stabilisation policy in the European Union]. Warsaw: Oficyna Wydawnicza Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie.

AMECO (2016) “Forecast for 2013 from the European Commission Spring Forecast” cited in L. Balcerowicz, A. Rzońca, L. Kalina and A. Łaszek Economic Growth in the European Union. Lisbon Council E-book. Brussels: Lisbon Council asbl.

Balcerowicz, L., Rzońca, A., Kalina, L. and Łaszek, A. (2013) Economic Growth in the European Union. Lisbon Council E-book. Brussels: Lisbon Council asbl.

Baldini, I. and Manasse, P. (2013) “What’s Wrong with Europe”, http://voxeu.org/article/what-s-wrong-europe (accessed: 5 August 2016).

Baranowski, P. (2008) Problem optymalnej stopy inflacji w modelowaniu wzrostu gospodarczego [The optimal inflation rate problem in economic growth modelling]. Łódź: Wydawnictwo Biblioteka.

Bartosik, K. (2012) “Popytowe i podażowe uwarunkowania polskiego bezrobocia” [The influence of supply and demand on Polish unemployment]. Gospodarka Narodowa 11–12: 255–256, LXXX/XXI, November–December.

Bednarczyk, J. L. (2015) “Polityka pieniężna Europejskiego Banku Centralnego a zagrożenie deflacją w Unii Europejskiej” [Monetary policy of the European Central Bank and the threat of inflation in the European Union]. Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego Studia i Prace 1 (3): Bankowość. Sieć bezpieczeństwa i otoczenie jego banków [Banking: A safety net around the banks], SGH.

Belke, A. and Dreger, C. (2011) “Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: Catching Up or Competitiveness?”. DIW Discussion Paper 1106. Berlin, February.

Bogdan, W., Boniecki, D., Labaye, E., Marciniak, T. and Nowacki, M. (2015) “Poland 2025: Europe’s New Growth Engine”. McKinsey&Company, http://mckinsey.pl/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Poland-2025_full_report.pdf (accessed: 11 March 2017).

Budgetary (2016) “Budżetowa strefa zagrożenia. Ranking państw UE z najwyższym i najniższym deficytem do 2017 roku” [Budgetary danger zone. Ranking of EU countries with the highest and lowest deficit until 2017]. Forsal.pl, 24 March.

Ducrozet, F., Kukla, B. and Lacan, A. (2011) “Are EBC Rate Hikes Going to Finish Off the Periphery?”. Consensus Economics 5 (3). Warsaw: Ministry of Finance.

EC (2015) “Commission Staff Working Document. Country Report Poland 2015 {COM(2015) 85 final}”. Brussels: European Commission, SWD(2015) 40 final.

EC (2014) “European Economic Forecast. Winter 2014”. European Economy 02. European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.

EC (2016) “Spring 2016 European Semester Package: Commission Issues Country-specific Recommendations”. European Commission press release, Brussels, 18 May.

European Parliament (2015) “Understanding Deflation. Falling Prices and Their Impact on the Economy”. European Parliament briefing, June.

Giżyński, J. (2012) “Konsolidacja fiskalna w krajach Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej w warunkach kryzysu zadłużenia” [Fiscal consolidation under debt crisis conditions in the Economic and Monetary Union countries]. Zarządzanie i Finanse 10 (4) (1).

Głąbicka, K. (2001) Wybrane elementy rynku pracy [Selected elements of the labour market]. Warsaw: Wydawnictwo Wyższej Szkoły Pedagogicznej TWP.

Hajder, K. (2013) “Bezrobocie w Unii Europejskiej w świetle kryzysu gospodarczego lat 2008–2013” [Unemployment in the European Union in the light of the economic crisis of 2008–2013]. Rocznik Integracji Europejskiej 7, https://doi.org/10.14746/rie.2015.9.28.

Information (2014) “Informacja o działaniach podjętych przez Polskę w celu realizacji rekomendacji Rady w ramach procedury nadmiernego deficytu” [Information about the actions taken by Poland in the implementation of Council recommendations regarding the excessive deficit procedure]. Warsaw, April, http://www.mf.gov.pl/documents/764034/1002171/EDP+raport+2014.04.pdf (accessed: 11 March 2017).

Kołodko, G. (1993) Kwadratura pięciokąta. Od załamania gospodarczego do trwałego wzrostu [The squareness of a pentagon. From economic downturn to steady growth]. Warsaw: Poltext.

Kostanciak, W. (2011) “Przemiany deficytu budżetowego w Polsce w latach 1992–2009” [Budget deficit changes in Poland between 1992–2009]. Studia i Prace Wydziału Nauk Ekonomicznych i Zarządzania 22. Szczecin: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego.

Kuziemska, K. (2012) “Determinanty salda rachunku obrotów bieżących Polski w latach 2000–2011” [Polish current account balance determinants in the years 2000–2011]. Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica 273.

Kuziemska, K. (2010) “Problem nierównowag na rachunkach obrotów bieżących w strefie euro” [The problem of imbalance in the current accounts of the Eurozone]. Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica 238.

Lubieniecka, M. (2013) “Budżet państwa w obliczu wahań koniunktury gospodarczej na przykładzie gospodarki polskiej” [National budget in the face of economic fluctuations on the example of the Polish economy]. Nierówności społeczne a wzrost gospodarczy 30. Rzeszów: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Rzeszowskiego.

Malinowski, D. (2012) “Determinanty zmian deficytu budżetu państwa i długu publicznego w państwach Unii Europejskiej w 2010 roku” [Determinants of change in the budget deficit and public debt in European Union countries in 2010]. Kwartalnik Kolegium Ekonomiczno-Społecznego Studia i Prace 2, SGH.

Mastromatteo, G. and Rossi, S. (2015) “The Economics of Deflation in the Euro Area: a Critique of Fiscal Austerity”. Review of Keynesian Economics 3 (3), Autumn, https://doi.org/10.4337/roke.2015.03.04.

Ministry of Finance (2012) “Finanse publiczne w Polsce w okresie kryzysu” [Public finance in Poland during the crisis].

MPC (2015) “Raport o inflacji” [Inflation report]. Monetary Policy Council. Warsaw: National Bank of Poland, November.

Polakowski, M. and Szelewa, D. (2013) Bezrobocie w Polsce: polityka państwa a indywidualne strategie [Unemployment in Poland: national policy versus individual strategies]. Warszawskie debaty o polityce społecznej, ICRA. Warsaw: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

Raczkowski, R. (2016) “Makroekonomiczne stabilizatory procesu zarządzania publicznego w państwach Unii Europejskiej” [Macroeconomic stabilisers of the public management process in European Union countries]. Przegląd Organizacji 9.

Sawicki, J. (2014) “Dynamika zmian w bilansie płatniczym krajów Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej – wnioski dla Polski” [The dynamics of change in the balance of payments of the Economic and Monetary Union countries – suggestions for Poland]. Gospodarka Narodowa 1 (269), LXXXIV/XXV, January–February.

Siek E. (2015) “Pięciokąt stabilizacji makroekonomicznej. Materiały dydaktyczne” [Macroeconomic Stability Pentagon. Educational materials]. Katedra Biznesu i Finansów Międzynarodowych. Uniwersytet Technologiczno-Humanistyczny im. K. Pułaskiego w Radomiu, uniwersytetradom.pl/files/get_userfile.php?id=7889. 2015.03.04 (accessed: 11 March 2017).

Szołno-Koguc, J. and Pomorska, A. (eds) (2011) Ekonomiczne i prawne uwarunkowania i bariery redukcji deficytu i długu publicznego [Economic and legal considerations and barriers in reducing public debt and deficit]. Warsaw: Lex a Wolters Kluwer business.

Walawski, M. (2015) “Stabilizacja makroekonomiczna gospodarki rosyjskiej w latach 1997–2012” [Macroeconomic stabilisation of the Russian economy in the period 1997–2012]. Studia Oeconomica Posnaniensia 3 (4).

World Bank (2015) “EU Regular Economic Report. Modest Recovery, Global Risks”. World Bank Group, Final Report.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15678/AOC.2018.1801